Turkey Dairy-Forage Feasibility Dashboard
Integrated Maralfalfa/Odot Forage + 50-Head Dairy Operation
Afyonkarahisar, Turkey • Model Date: April 3, 2026 • 1 USD = 44.55 TRY
Total Investment
$596,550
₺26.6M TRY
5-Year ROI
87.1%
5-year total EBITDA / CAPEX
NPV (10%)
-$269,569
5-year bridge horizon
IRR
-10.7%
Internal Rate of Return
EBITDA
$39,890 → $101,665
Year 1 \u2192 Year 5
Avg DSCR
1.4x
Avg Years 1-4
Recommended Scenario: Brown Swiss / Small (20ha/50hd)
At $596,550 total CAPEX (100% Bridge Finance, no IPARD), the $450k loan covers 75% of costs — requiring $147k additional equity. Brown Swiss offers premium milk quality (4.0% fat, 3.7% protein), climate adaptability, and disease resistance. Integrated Maralfalfa/Odot forage covers 91-100% of feed needs, with Year 1-2 surplus generating $14-18k in silage/bale sales.
Project Viability Indicators
⚠️ Year 5 balloon payment ($495k) requires refinancing strategy. Begin discussions 12+ months before maturity.
Year 5 EBITDA by Scenario
All 9 breed × scale combinations
Executive Summary
This financial model evaluates an integrated Maralfalfa/Odot forage and dairy cattle operation in the Afyonkarahisar region of Turkey, financed through a $450,000 bridge loan at 10% interest with a 5-year term (interest-only years 1-4, balloon payment year 5). The analysis models three breed scenarios (Holstein, Simmental, Brown Swiss) across three scaling scenarios (Small/Medium/Large).
Key finding: The project generates positive and growing EBITDA from Year 1, but the 5-year bridge financing structure with a $495,000 balloon payment in Year 5 creates significant refinancing risk. The operation is operationally viable but requires a long-term financing strategy beyond the initial bridge loan.